CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-11-09T12:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-11-09T12:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27655/-1
CME Note: Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The start time is based off of STEREO A COR2 imagery due to a data gap in SOHO at the time of this DONKI entry. The eruption starts around 2023-11-08T10:42Z and is primarily characterized as a broad region of dimming centered around S10W10 near AR 3480. A piece of a filament may have erupted as seen in SDO AIA 304. This CME is associated with a C2.6 flare from AR 3480 peaking at 2023-11-09T11:18Z best seen in SDO AIA 131. Dimming is visible in SDO AIA 193, post-eruptive arcades can be best seen in SDO AIA 94/193, and opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171. Increase in B_total from 1.8 nT to 5.12 nT, eventually reaching a maximum of 8.3 nT, accompanied by an increase in speed from 450 km/s to approx. 530 km/s, which reached a maximum of approx. 580 km/s. Rotation is also seen in the magnetic field components, and Bz reaches near -5.8 nT. Accompanied by increases in density and temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-12T05:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-11T18:45Z (-9.42h, +9.5h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2023/11/09 11:45Z Plane of Sky 1: 19:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction Plane of Sky 2: 22:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction POS Difference: 3:20 POS Midpoint: 21:00Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:15 Numeric View/Impact Type: 3 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~5.95 Travel Time: ~5.95 * 9:15 = 55:00 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2023-11-11T18:45Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1.5 Hours - Travel Time: 10% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5Lead Time: 53.78 hour(s)
Difference: 10.75 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2023-11-09T23:43Z
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